IPL 2026 • Monte Carlo Agent

Who's making the IPL playoffs?

The agent pulls the live points table and remaining fixtures from iplt20.com, builds a strength model from each team's win rate, NRR and recent form, then simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times to estimate every team's chance of making the top four.

Updated 6/30/2026, 11:04:21 AM0 league matches remaining

Qualification odds

#1
RCB
100.0%
#2
GT
100.0%
#3
SRH
100.0%
#4
RR
100.0%
#5
PBKS
0.0%
#6
DC
0.0%
#7
KKR
0.0%
#8
CSK
0.0%
#9
MI
0.0%
#10
LSG
0.0%

Playoff cut = top 4 by points, NRR breaks ties. Qualification % is the share of 10,000 simulated seasons in which the team finishes in the top four.

Most pivotal matches

These are the games where the outcome moves the playoff picture the most. Click a team to pin them as the winner, the simulator re-runs with that match locked in.

How each team gets in

For every team still alive, the cleanest path to the playoffs, and how much it boosts their odds. Teams already in (or already out) are shown collapsed.

RCB
BengaluruQualified

Mathematically qualified for the playoffs.

GT
GujaratQualified

Mathematically qualified for the playoffs.

SRH
HyderabadQualified

Mathematically qualified for the playoffs.

RR
RajasthanQualified

Mathematically qualified for the playoffs.

PBKS
PunjabEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

DC
DelhiEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

KKR
KolkataEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

CSK
ChennaiEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

MI
MumbaiEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

LSG
LucknowEliminated

Mathematically eliminated.

What each match decides

For every remaining match: a one-line read on which team's qualification odds move most depending on who wins. Sorted by impact.

DateMatchIf home winsIf away wins

Tiebreaker watch

Teams that could finish on the same number of points. Net Run Rate breaks the tie, and these are the actual NRR gaps and approximate run-margins needed to flip the order.

RCBvsGT@ 18 pts

Final tally: both finish on 18 pts.

RCB NRR
+0.783
GT NRR
+0.695

RCB leads by 0.088. GT needs to win their next match by roughly 26+ more runs than RCB to flip the order.

GTvsSRH@ 18 pts

Final tally: both finish on 18 pts.

GT NRR
+0.695
SRH NRR
+0.524

GT leads by 0.171. SRH needs to win their next match by roughly 51+ more runs than GT to flip the order.

RCBvsSRH@ 18 pts

Final tally: both finish on 18 pts.

RCB NRR
+0.783
SRH NRR
+0.524

RCB leads by 0.259. SRH needs to win their next match by roughly 78+ more runs than RCB to flip the order.

Remaining schedule

MatchFixtureModel P(home win)

How the agent thinks

1. Data. Standings + match schedule are pulled live from ipl-stats-sports-mechanic.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com, the same feed iplt20.com's Angular app uses.

2. Strength model. Each team gets a score = 0.5·win-rate + 0.25·normalized-NRR + 0.25·last-5-form. The win probability for any match is then σ(3·(strength_home − strength_away)).

3. Monte Carlo. For each of 10,000 simulated seasons, every remaining match is decided by a biased coin flip with a sampled run-margin that updates NRR. Then teams are ranked by Points (then NRR) and the top four advance.

4. What-if. Pinning a match outcome forces that result in every simulation, so you can see directly how a single game reshapes the table.