IPL 2026 • Monte Carlo Agent

Who's making the IPL playoffs?

The agent pulls the live points table and remaining fixtures from iplt20.com, builds a strength model from each team's win rate, NRR and recent form, then simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times to estimate every team's chance of making the top four.

Updated 5/16/2026, 1:52:47 AM • 11 league matches remaining

Qualification odds

#1
GT
99.8%
#2
RCB
99.2%
#3
SRH
80.5%
#4
RR
61.4%
#5
PBKS
40.4%
#6
CSK
16.1%
#7
KKR
2.3%
#8
DC
0.3%
#9
MI
0.0%
#10
LSG
0.0%

Playoff cut = top 4 by points, NRR breaks ties. Qualification % is the share of 10,000 simulated seasons in which the team finishes in the top four.

Most pivotal matches

These are the games where the outcome moves the playoff picture the most. Click a team to pin them as the winner — the simulator re-runs with that match locked in.

Sun, 17 May • 15:30±51pp swing
  • PBKS if PBKS wins↑ 51.1pp(40%)
  • RR if RCB wins↓ 25.7pp(61%)
  • SRH if RCB wins↓ 10.9pp(80%)
Sat, 23 May • 19:30±46pp swing
  • PBKS if PBKS wins↓ 45.6pp(40%)
  • RR if LSG wins↑ 17.2pp(61%)
  • SRH if LSG wins↑ 12.0pp(80%)
Sun, 17 May • 19:30±42pp swing
  • RR if RR wins↓ 41.8pp(61%)
  • PBKS if DC wins↑ 21.3pp(40%)
  • SRH if DC wins↑ 8.3pp(80%)
Sun, 24 May • 15:30±41pp swing
  • RR if RR wins↓ 40.9pp(61%)
  • PBKS if MI wins↑ 18.8pp(40%)
  • SRH if MI wins↑ 9.8pp(80%)
Tue, 19 May • 19:30±40pp swing
  • RR if RR wins↑ 39.9pp(61%)
  • PBKS if LSG wins↓ 19.0pp(40%)
  • SRH if LSG wins↓ 9.0pp(80%)
Mon, 18 May • 19:30±39pp swing
  • SRH if SRH wins↓ 38.6pp(80%)
  • CSK if CSK wins↑ 30.2pp(16%)
  • PBKS if CSK wins↑ 8.2pp(40%)
Thu, 21 May • 19:30±35pp swing
  • CSK if CSK wins↓ 34.6pp(16%)
  • PBKS if GT wins↑ 11.8pp(40%)
  • RR if GT wins↑ 10.8pp(61%)
Fri, 22 May • 19:30±31pp swing
  • SRH if SRH wins↑ 30.6pp(80%)
  • PBKS if RCB wins↓ 12.0pp(40%)
  • CSK if RCB wins↓ 7.8pp(16%)
Sat, 16 May • 19:30±7pp swing
  • KKR if KKR wins↑ 6.8pp(2%)
  • SRH if GT wins↓ 2.6pp(80%)
  • RR if GT wins↓ 2.2pp(61%)
Sun, 24 May • 19:30±4pp swing
  • KKR if KKR wins↑ 3.9pp(2%)
  • SRH if DC wins↓ 2.1pp(80%)
Wed, 20 May • 19:30±4pp swing
  • KKR if KKR wins↑ 3.8pp(2%)
  • SRH if MI wins↓ 2.4pp(80%)

Remaining schedule

MatchFixtureModel P(home win)
#60KKRvsGT
Sat, 16 May • 19:30
34% / 66%
#61PBKSvsRCB
Sun, 17 May • 15:30
32% / 68%
#62DCvsRR
Sun, 17 May • 19:30
41% / 59%
#63CSKvsSRH
Mon, 18 May • 19:30
45% / 55%
#64RRvsLSG
Tue, 19 May • 19:30
60% / 40%
#65KKRvsMI
Wed, 20 May • 19:30
61% / 39%
#66GTvsCSK
Thu, 21 May • 19:30
65% / 35%
#67SRHvsRCB
Fri, 22 May • 19:30
43% / 57%
#68LSGvsPBKS
Sat, 23 May • 19:30
45% / 55%
#69MIvsRR
Sun, 24 May • 15:30
39% / 61%
#70KKRvsDC
Sun, 24 May • 19:30
59% / 41%

How the agent thinks

1. Data. Standings + match schedule are pulled live from ipl-stats-sports-mechanic.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com — the same feed iplt20.com's Angular app uses.

2. Strength model. Each team gets a score = 0.5·win-rate + 0.25·normalized-NRR + 0.25·last-5-form. The win probability for any match is then σ(3·(strength_home − strength_away)).

3. Monte Carlo. For each of 10,000 simulated seasons, every remaining match is decided by a biased coin flip with a sampled run-margin that updates NRR. Then teams are ranked by Points (then NRR) and the top four advance.

4. What-if. Pinning a match outcome forces that result in every simulation, so you can see directly how a single game reshapes the table.